The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for a global oil surplus this year and next for the first time in several months.
According to the agency, this is due to rising oil demand and slower production growth.
Global supply will exceed oil demand by 3.815 million barrels per day in 2026. This is a reduction of 231,000 barrels (159 litres) per day compared to last month’s estimate. It is the first reduction since the OPEC+ oil cartel began increasing production in May.
Despite this reduction, there is still a record surplus in 2026. The estimate for this year’s surplus has been revised downward for the first time since February.
The revised estimates, which are used by both the oil industry and governments, reflect OPEC+’s decision last month to pause production increases and a more positive forecast for global oil consumption, according to the agency.
